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‘King Greenback’ is making a royal feast of company earnings: Morning Temporary

This text first appeared within the Morning Temporary. Get the Morning Temporary despatched on to your inbox each Monday to Friday by 6:30 am ET. Subscribe

Friday, Oct. 21, 2022

My word-find operate has been going into overdrive this earnings season, searching for a number of key phrases in earnings-call transcripts: “International trade.” “Currencies.” “{Dollars}.”

Netflix (NFLX) Chief Monetary Officer Spencer Neumann summed it up succinctly in his firm’s convention name: “The FX drag is important.”

The rise of the US greenback, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate will increase, amongst different components, is triggering fairly the knock-on impact to company income. Whereas buyers would possibly wish to strip out foreign money impacts to get a greater concept of elementary demand, they need to additionally put together for these hits to final some time.

In a report this week titled, “King Greenback Has Extra Room to Achieve,” Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson cited a number of drivers for continued greenback power, together with the foreign money’s conventional resilience at occasions of market stress.

‘King Greenback’ is making a royal feast of company earnings: Morning Temporary — Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos attends a screening for the documentary “The Redeem Group” in Los Angeles, California, US September 22, 2022. Netflix cited the “FX drag” in its current earnings report. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

“The greenback index can proceed to rally right here,” Chris Vecchio, senior strategist at DailyFX, instructed Yahoo Finance Stay earlier this week. “To make use of an outdated axiom, the greenback stays the nicest home in a foul neighborhood.”

That’s, whereas the US financial system could also be slowing and even coming into a recession, many different international economies are faring worse. In currencies, it is all relative.

That greenback power is costing firms. Citi strategists estimate {that a} 10% bump within the greenback index will minimize $15 to $20 from S&P 500 earnings per share. The greenback index has rallied greater than 17% this yr versus a basket of currencies. The dollar is up 14% versus the euro, and a whopping 30% in opposition to the Japanese yen.

This early earnings season is plagued by examples of the following prices. IBM numbers beat estimates, whilst the corporate mentioned foreign money translation price it $1.1 billion final quarter. Netflix’s working margin dropped to 19.3% from 23.5% final quarter — a decline it blamed virtually fully on the greenback’s achieve. And Procter and Gamble will take a $3.9 billion, after-tax hit from foreign money results this yr.

Giant firms do have the flexibility to hedge, or offset, the positive factors within the greenback in varied methods, together with overlaying bills in native currencies. However the greenback’s transfer has been so massive and so fast this yr that even essentially the most seasoned hedgers have had problem adjusting.

It is also powerful for firms to foretell the greenback’s transfer six months to a yr to even 18 months forward, as they would wish for hedging, Jefferies Managing Director and Head of Company Hedging and FX Options Joseph Lewis instructed Yahoo Finance Stay lately: “The toughest half for firms proper now to find out is, will this persist? You’ll be able to take 10 economists — they will say barely various things, have barely totally different forecasts. I feel that is been actually difficult for my shoppers; there is not a consistency in view.”

So, what are buyers to do relating to factoring within the impact of the greenback? The underside line for Citi’s Scott Chronert: “USD related for equities however not the primary driver,” he wrote in a current word. Quite, he mentioned, buyers ought to concentrate on “underlying enterprise traits and situations.”

Buyers have an alternative choice, as Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre identified in Wednesday’s Morning Temporary: They will put money into small-cap firms, which typically have much less publicity to foreign money fluctuations than giant cap firms.

Right this moment’s e-newsletter is by Julie Hyman, anchor and correspondent at Yahoo Finance. Observe Julie on Twitter @juleshyman. Learn this and extra market information on the go together with Yahoo Finance App.

What to Watch Right this moment

Financial system

Earnings

Schlumberger (SLB), Merely Good Meals (SMPL), Verizon (VZ)

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IMF warns of slowing development, rising market dangers as finance officers meet

By David Lawder and Pete Schroeder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Worldwide Financial Fund was warned on Tuesday that colliding pressures from inflation, war-driven power and meals crises and sharply larger rates of interest have been pushing the world to the brink of recession and threatening monetary market stability.

In gloomy studies issued at first of the primary in-person Worldwide Financial Fund and World Financial institution annual conferences in three years, the IMF urged central banks to maintain up their battle towards inflation regardless of the ache attributable to financial tightening and the rise within the US greenback to a two-decade excessive, the 2 essential drivers of a latest bout of economic market volatility.

Chopping its 2023 international development forecasts additional, the IMF mentioned in its World Financial Outlook that nations representing a 3rd of world output might be in recession subsequent 12 months.

“The three largest economies, the USA, China and the euro space, will proceed to stall,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, mentioned in an announcement. “In brief, the worst is but to come back, and for many individuals, 2023 will really feel like a recession.”

The IMF mentioned International GDP development subsequent 12 months will gradual to 2.7%, in contrast, down from its July forecast of two.9%, as larger rates of interest gradual the US financial system, Europe struggles with spiking fuel costs and China contends with continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a weakening property sector.

The worldwide lender maintained its 2022 development forecast at 3.2%, reflecting stronger-than-expected output in Europe however a weaker efficiency in the USA, after torrent 6.0% international development final 12 months because the COVID-19 pandemic eased.

Some key European economies will fall into “technical recession” subsequent 12 months, together with Germany and Italy, as power value spikes and shortages slam output. China’s development outlooks additionally have been downgraded because it struggles with continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a weakening property sector, the place a deeper downturn would gradual development additional, the IMF mentioned.

The rising financial pressures, coupled with tightening liquidity, cussed inflation and lingering monetary vulnerabilities, are rising the dangers of disorderly asset repricings and monetary market contagions, the IMF mentioned in its International Monetary Stability Report.

“It is tough to consider a time the place uncertainty was so excessive,” Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s financial and capital markets director, informed Reuters in an interview. “We have now to return a long time to see a lot battle on the earth, and on the similar time inflation is extraordinarily excessive.”

Finance officers from the IMF’s 190 member nations this week are grappling with these uncertainties from differing financial positions in Washington, together with meals and power crises prompted by the conflict in Ukraine and different international challenges together with huge clear power financing wants.

PRIORITY: INFLATION

The IMF mentioned central bankers had a fragile balancing act to battle inflation with out over-tightening, which may push the worldwide financial system into an “unnecessarily extreme recession” and heap financial ache on rising markets which can be seeing their currencies fall sharply towards the greenback.

However Gourinchas mentioned controlling inflation was the larger precedence and letting up too quickly would undermine central banks’ “hard-won credibility.”

“What we’re recommending is that central banks keep the course. Now that does not imply that they need to speed up in comparison with what they have been doing,” Gourinchas mentioned in a information convention, including that it was “a bit early” to shift programs.

“I feel proper now our recommendation is, ‘let’s be certain we see a decisive decline in inflation.'”

The IMF forecast that international headline shopper value inflation would peak at 9.5% within the third quarter of 2022, declining to 4.7% by the fourth quarter of 2023.

However the outlook may darken appreciable if the world financial system is hit by a “believable mixture of shocks,” together with a 30% spike in oil costs from present ranges, the IMF mentioned, pushing international development right down to 1.0% subsequent 12 months – a degree related to broadly falling actual incomes.

Different parts of this “draw back situation” embody a steep drop-off in Chinese language property sector funding, a pointy tightening of economic circumstances introduced on by rising market forex depreciations and a continued overheating of labor markets that leads to decrease potential output.

The IMF put a 25% chance of world development falling under 2% subsequent 12 months – a phenomenon that has occurred solely 5 occasions since 1970 – and mentioned there was greater than a ten% likelihood of a world GDP contraction.

(Reporting by David Lawder; Modifying by Paul Simao)

Finance Minister Gives Particulars on Future Fund Laws

The provincial authorities goes to observe by way of on a advice of the PERT Report to ascertain a Future Fund.

The fund shall be managed by the Division of Finance, with a six-person board of trustees to supply oversight. 4 of these positions will sit on the board based mostly on their place in authorities, with the opposite two being appointed by the Lieutenant Governor in Council.

So far as contributions to the fund are involved, authorities shall be required to contribute web proceeds of tangible and intangible belongings bought for larger than $5 million, and a portion of non-renewable useful resource royalties obtained within the earlier fiscal 12 months as required by future fund laws.

The treasury board may approve further contributions.

Withdrawals from the fund have been damaged down into two classes.

The primary is non-restricted withdrawals, which can be utilized to service the general public debt, or pay an quantity required because of an “extraordinary circumstance,” which is outlined as one thing that has or is projected to materially impression the province’s fiscal place.

Then there are restricted withdrawals, which can not happen till both 10 years have handed or till the fund’s steadiness is at the very least equal to monetary obligations referring to unfunded long-term debt maturities within the subsequent 10 years.

After that interval, funds may be withdrawn to pay bills that come up from the sale of a Crown asset that weren’t identified or determinable on the time the proceeds have been deposited, pay quantities associated to decommissioning and abandonment actions underneath an oil lease or license, and to fund strategic priorities.

Bland China data leaves market hungry for stimulus

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole

It could have been worse, is about the best that can be said of China’s data dump today. The Q2 GDP number of +0.8% q/q just pipped forecasts, but the y/y undershot at 6.3% suggests revisions somewhere to the past.

Industrial output in June beat by rising 4.4% on year, but retail sales missed at 3.1% and property sales suffered the largest monthly drop this year, so making for a rather mixed bag.

The market reaction was disgruntled with Chinese shares down and the yuan easing. Investors’ favorite liquid China proxy, the Aussie dollar, was modestly under water as analysts suspect Beijing will allow the yuan to keep depreciating as one form of indirect stimulus.

The data underlined the need for much more serious fiscal spending but Beijing seems in no hurry to satiate the market wishes this time. The central bank left one-year rates unchanged on Monday, and analysts seem to have resigned to wait for a Politburo meeting later this month for fresh steps.

Earnings season is well underway and Tesla is the first of the tech giants to report on Wednesday, with much riding on whether it can meet high expectations.

BofA expects it and the six other tech behemoths to boast earnings growth of an average of 19% over the next 12 months, more than double the 8% estimated for the rest of the S&P 500.

Worth noting that the phenomenal rise in the seven’s market capitalization will prompt a re-weighting of the Nasdaq on July 24, which will see their weighting fall to 44% of the index from 56%. Apple’s weighting will drop by around 4ppt to 12% and Microsoft the same to 10%.

Goldman Sachs says passive funds that track NDX will rebalance their portfolios but the 2011 special rebalance experience suggests the stock-level impact will be limited.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

– ECB Board member Fabio Panetta at G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Gandhinagar, India

– ECB President Christine Lagarde gives pre-recorded speech, board members Frank Elderson and Philip R. Lane appear at 9th ECB conference on central, eastern and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries

– Federal Reserve Bank of New York issues Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Quinoa Beet Salad – JennifersKitchen

Let me be very clear. I do not like beets. I’ve spent over fifty years disliking beets.

I’ve tried them boiled (gag-inducing), roasted (almost tolerable, but no), raw (the additional chewing required just prolongs the misery), and picked (where’s the bathroom?).

To me, beets taste like garden dirt laced with a little bit of sugar. Interestingly, there is validity to that perception. Beets contain a naturally-occurring compound called geosmin, and geosmin gives beets their dirt-like . . . er. . . earthy flavour.

Some people like this earthy flavor.

I’m not one of them.

Just as interesting – at least to me since helping people eat healthy foods that they don’t naturally love is a big part of my job – is the fact that our taste buds can actually become more and more tolerant to this earthy flavor the more we are exposed to it.

Hard to believe, but true.

So, if we beet-haters can find ways to get more beets into our diet without the unpleasant effect on our taste buds (see the 2^nd paragraph above), then after a while we may find that we actually start to like beets.

And this Quinoa Beet Salad is out to do just that. With outstanding finesse.

This beautiful salad is a colorful mixture of carrots, quinoa, leafy greens, and beets, tossed in a tangy dressing of walnuts, lemon, onion, and just the right seasonings. For me, the tang of the dressing works wonders at transforming that earthy flavor into pure deliciousness, and I found myself actually taking seconds of this beautiful beet salad.

I’ve discovered that many people who are sure they hate beets actually love this salad.

“I can’t believe I just ate raw beets and actually liked them!”

Health Benefits of Beets

Low in calories, high in fiber, rich in iron and antioxidants, beets are blazing with nutrition, color and flavor!

Studies have shown that beets can protect against cancer, help reduce blood pressure, improve endurance performance, and increase blood flow to the brain.

Lemony Quinoa Beet Salad

This delicious salad is served with crusty bread to soak up the amazing dressing left over on your plate when you’re done.

Prep Time 25 minutes

Total Time 25 minutes

All recipes on jenniferskitchen.com are the property of jennifer’s kitchen and cannot be republished without written permission.

DRESSINGS

3/4 cup lemon juice
1/4 cup raw walnuts
1/2 medium fresh onions
1 clove garlic
1 1/4 teaspoons salt
2 tablespoons water
1/2 teaspoons dried parsley
1/2 teaspoons dried basil
1/4 teaspoons dried oregano
1 teaspoons apple juice concentrate – optional

SALAD

1 1/2 cups cooked quinoa – (See note for how to cook quinoa.)
1 raw carrots
2 medium raw beets – (or 3 small beets; 3 cups shredded)
1/4 cup finely sliced onions
2/3 cup shredded raw greens – (arugula, spinach, lettuce, cress, and/or kale)
1/3 cup chopped raw walnuts

GARNISH

1 sprig fresh rosemary
2 sprigs fresh thyme
4 lemon wedges – optional

Prepare dressings:

Place lemon juice, walnuts, onion, garlic and salt in a blender and blend until very smooth.
Add water and seasonings and pulse once or twice to combine. Set aside.

Prepare Salad:

Place quinoa and place in a mixing bowl.
(If your quinoa is freshly cooked and still warm, you do not need to let it cool before adding to the mixing bowl. It can be added while still warm.)
Peel and shred carrots and add quinoa. (I use the large shredding blade on my food processor to shred the vegetables for this salad.)
Peel and shred beets and add to bowl.
Cut onion into very thin slices and add to bowl.
Pour about half of the dressing over the top of the salad and mix. Reserve remaining dressing to add to salad later if desired. You may or may not use all the dressings, depending on your taste.
If the quinoa is hot when added, chill it for at least 30 minutes. Otherwise, skip this step; Salad can be served immediately or stored in the refrigerator for up to 3 days before serving.
Before serving, finely chop greens and sprinkle over salad along with chopped walnuts.
Garnish with fresh thyme leaves, chopped rosemary leaves, and lemon wedges.

To cook quinoa:
Bring 2/3 cup water to boil in a medium saucepan.
Add 1/3 cup uncooked quinoa to boiling water, cover, return to boil, and then reduce heat.
Simmer for 20 minutes or until all the water is absorbed. (Cooking time will vary depending on how hot your stove burner is.)
Remove from heat and fluff with fork.
Prep Time:
I use my food processor (the large shredding blade) to shred the vegetables for this salad. Saves time and shredded knuckles. If you shred by hand, plan for a few extra minutes in prep time.

Variation:
If you like more greens in your salad, serve on a bed of greens.

>> One quick request: if you like this recipe, please leave a rating and a comment. Ratings help more people find these healthy recipes!

PrintRecipe

Keywords: beets, dairy-free, gluten-free, oil-free, plant-based, raw, vegan, weightloss

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Before you go . . .

No calorie counting. No portion sizes.

4 Tips to Lose Weight without Feeling Hungry

Are you trying to lose a few pounds? Do you find yourself hungry all the time?

Just because you’re trying to lose weight, doesn’t mean you have to deal with a grumbling stomach. Here are some easy tricks to make you feel fuller longer.

Tip 1. Eat more whole grains

While refined grains, like white flour, white pasta, and white rice will cause you to feel hungry just a short time later; whole grains, like brown rice, oats, millet, and teff will leave you feeling much satisfied longer.

When eating pasta, be sure to choose whole-grain pasta, such as brown rice pasta when eating pasta. (But don’t bother with cardboard-tasting pasta. Here’s how to choose the best-tasting whole-grain pasta.)

(Hint: Here are some delicious and slimming pasta recipes.)

Tip 2. Eat more legumes (beans, chickpeas, lentils)

Studies have shown that those who are able to lose weight and keep it off consume an average of 33% more fiber than their overweight counterparts.

As an added bonus, a diet rich in legumes may also boost your metabolism.

(Hint: Here’s how to cook legumes so they digest more easily.)

Tip 3. Eat more potatoes

Vegan and Gluten-Free Cream of Potato and Kale Soup

Both regular potatoes and sweet potatoes contain hunger-fighting chemicals. A study in the British Journal of Nutrition found that eating these foods may boost satiety — and help you eat about 320 fewer calories per day.

(Hint: Here are some delicious and slimming potato recipes.)

Tip 4. Eat breakfast

Vegan and Gluten-Free Apple Breakfast Salad

Research shows that those who regularly eat a healthy breakfast eat fewer calories throughout the day and yet feel less hungry.

(Hint: Here are some delicious and slimming breakfast recipes.)

Lose Those Extra Pounds Once and For All!

Avoid hunger and those annoying cravings and you’ve got half the weight loss battle won. Practice these tips and you’ll be one your way to a skinnier… and less hungry… you!

Need more help with weight loss?

My weight loss program gives you inspirational and informative videos from me (the next best thing to having me in your home for personal coaching!), a delicious meal plan specially designed to help you lose the maximum amount of weight without feeling hungry, and loads of helpful resources (like 10-minute meals) and extra tips (like the secrets to minimizing cravings) to give you all the tools you need to lose every last pound you want to lose.

What’s more, you get over 100 delicious recipes to make your weight loss journey enjoyable – including several exclusive recipes only available through this program.

Best of all? You get unlimited encouragement and help from our amazing private support community, so a helping hand is just a click away. The support will keep you motivated and committed and in turn you’ll see the results that last.

I am celebrating a new life today. Because of this program, I have finally lost all the extra weight and have kept it off for over a year (and counting). I cannot tell you how happy I am.”
Hannah

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driver fatigue – RoSPA Workplace Safety Blog

Experiencing fatigue at work, home or the road can massively increase your chances of being in a fatal or serious accident. With the darker nights and colder weather upon us, you are more likely to feel tired when going about your daily routine.

Fatigue and road accidents

Falling asleep at the wheel is a more prevalent occurrence than most people realize. In 2018 a survey¹ revealed of 20,000 motorists, one in eight admitted falling asleep while driving, while 37% said they had been so tired they were frightened they would drop off behind the wheel. Contrary to popular belief, common remedies for tiredness while driving such as winding the window down or turning the radio up will not improve alertness. If you feel the need to employ these tactics you are probably already too tired to drive safely.

In fact, driver fatigue causes thousands of road accidents every year; research² shows that it may be a contributing factor in up to 20% of road accidents and up to one quarter of fatal and serious accidents.

Sleepiness also reduces reaction time (a critical element of safe driving). It also reduces vigilance, alertness and concentration so that the ability to perform attention-based activities like driving is impaired. The speed at which information is processed is also reduced by sleepiness and the quality of decision-making may also be affected.

Commonly, road accidents are more likely to occur between midnight and 6am, between 2-4pm (especially after a large meal or even just one alcoholic beverage), with driver fatigue setting in when driving home after working long hours and particularly post night shift .

Fattitude and the workplace

A study by researchers at Loughborough University who surveyed 1,353 of London’s 25,000 bus drivers for Transport for London revealed that 21% of bus drivers in London had to fight sleepiness at least two or three times a week. The study also revealed that 35% of the respondents had a ‘close call’ on the road due to tiredness in the past year and 5% had been in at least one accident because of fatigue.

Management of Occupational Road Risk (MORR™)

RoSPA offers a Management of Occupational Road Risk (MORR™) course which helps fleet managers examine ways in which to apply risk assessment techniques and safety management models to the specifics of road-related risks (including signs of fatigue among their drivers).

On completion of (MORR™), delegates will be able to conduct risk assessments associated with occupational road risk, understand some of the appropriate measures to control the risks, and appreciate the benefits associated with successfully managing occupational road risk.

For more information on our (MORR™) course visit our website, email or call us on +44 (0)121 248 2233. You can find further information about how fatigue effects driving download this RoSPA factsheet.

Resources

Sky News – Tiredness blamed for quarter of fatal road crashes
https://bit.ly/35rupgY

RoSPA – Driver fatigue
https://bit.ly/347KB6C

The Blue Monday Myth – RoSPA Workplace Safety Blog

‘Blue Monday’ may not be supported by hard evidence, but depression and other mental health issues are a real concern in the workplace.

Before 2005 no-one talked about Blue Monday.

The reason for this is because the idea that the third Monday in the month of January, later dubbed ‘Blue Monday’, was invented in a press release 15 years ago. The method used to develop the concept has since come under a lot of scrutiny, but despite this, a lot of people do suffer with their mental health during the winter.

According to research conducted by pollster YouGov, as many as 29 per cent of UK adults may suffer from Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). SAD is characterized by persistent low mood, irritability, and feeling sleepy during the day.

Managing mental health in the workplace

Although feelings of despondency and symptoms of depression can peak in the winter months, it is important to remember that mental health issues can have a real impact on workplaces all year round.

Last year, the Health and Safety Executive reported that at any one time, a third of workers in the UK suffer from depression, stress and anxiety. In 2017/18 this led to 15.4million lost working days.

As well as a loss of productivity, employees who are suffering from mental health issues such as depression or stress may be at a higher risk of being involved in an accident. For some time now, RoSPA, has recognized that supporting people with mental health issues at work is a key challenge for health and safety managers. In 2016 RoSPA published a policy position on this subject.

You can look out for your employees or colleagues by learning to spot the signs of common mental health disorders such as stress or depression:

Loss of self-confidence and self-esteem
Sadness that doesn’t go away
Tiredness/loss of energy
Difficulty concentrating
anxiety
Feelings of hopelessness
Avoiding other people, even close friends or family
Sleep problems
Feelings of guilt or worthlessness
Loss of appetite
Self-harm
Suicidal thoughts.

Mental health charity MIND has further advice on how to spot mental health issues at work.

In addition to learning to spot the signs that someone may be suffering, it is important to put in place practices that will help develop a supportive workplace culture:

Risk Assessments

In consultation with safety representatives, risk assessments should be reviewed in such cases to determine whether additional measures are necessary to cope with any potential safety performance impairments due to stress (whether occupational or non-occupational in origin).

Training

Training programs for managers and safety representatives on how to deal with stress should not only address the identification, assessment and management of occupational stress and stressors, but how to tackle the safety impact of non-occupational stress on key staff.

support

Staff experiencing stress need re-assurance that any adjustments to their work for safety reasons will not lead to unfair discrimination. Similarly, organizations need to have arrangements in place to counsel support, and rehabilitate staff who have suffered mental trauma as a result of accidental involvement, whether as a casualty or a witness.

For more advice about managing mental health in the workplace please visit the RoSPA website: www.rospa.com/Occupational-Safety/Advice/Health/Stress