Finance

Is It Time to Cut Back on Alcohol?

December 12, 2022 · 7:00 AM

Is It Time to Cut Back on Alcohol?
“Is the room spinning, or is it just me?”

A few months ago I ran across a thoughtful article by Morris van de Camp entitled Love Drinking Less. It’s well worth a read if your alcohol consumption is out of control or heading that way.

Alcohol is a two-edged sword. On the one hand it makes life fun and turns strangers into intimate friends in the course of an evening; on the other, it makes a person dysfunctional. Very dysfunctional. Productive time is lost, relationships are damaged, and health is harmed.

I cannot say that I’ve “struggled” with alcohol in the truest sense. I’ve never been arrested for drunk driving, and I’ve had no serious relationship trouble from drinking. All of my drinking has been in an appropriate time and place — but one drink will inevitably lead to another. I’d wind up accidentally drunk when I really wanted a light buzz. I also found that when the time came up when I’d be free to drink, I looked a bit too much forward to it.

If you’re a tippler, this is the time of year to consider a “Dry January.” You may learn something about yourself. Be kind to your liver — you only have one.

Steve Parker, M.D

PS: It’s also time to decide on your weight loss program for the new year.

One More Cure for Hiccups

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One More Cure for Hiccups

December 20, 2022 · 5:50 AM

I’ve written previously about how Paul Ingraham helped cure my patello-femoral pain syndrome.

More recently, Paul looked into hiccup cures because his father had an intractable case. What finally worked for dad? Breathing into a plastic bag.

Boosting blood CO2 (hypercapnia) by breathing in a PLASTIC bag. This one is quite plausible and is easy and safe to try. Hypercapnia definitely affects some kinds of hiccups. The story (from a smart source, a good “friend of PainSci”): “There’s an even easier way out of hiccups — at zero cost. Learned it from my uncle, who studied medicine in Brazil in the 50s. Anesthetized patients with hiccups were in pain, so they needed to get rid of it ASAP. Method: breathe in a PLASTIC bag, small enough for you to get hypercapnia (get higher blood levels of CO2). You have to hold the bag REALLY tight around your nose and mouth to prevent air from escaping, and if you have trouble with dizziness, it’s advisable to sit down for it. As soon as it gets uncomfortable, mostly after 4-6 breaths, you can stop, the hiccup will be gone. I don’t know what this does to the phrenic nerve, but it works 100%.”

Safety Notes: Obviously there could be some danger with this method. If he’d had low O2 or was struggling for breath, we likely wouldn’t have dared. (On the other hand, if he’d been in that state, he would’ve been at the hospital.) But he was supervised, with no possibility of getting stuck, and a matter of only a few breaths. Perhaps there was still some risk… but I think not treating those hiccups was also a risk.

I’ve never tried that method for my hiccups. My personal favorite home remedy is “drinking from the far side of the glass.” AKA, drinking water upside down. Watch this video of a good ol’ boy demonstrating the technique although I would aim for drinking at least 6-8 fl oz of water before quitting. Don’t ask me how it works; it may have something to do with the soft palate or diaphragm.

Steve Parker, M.D

One More Cure for Hiccups

Filed under Uncategorized

Major calls from economists on Canada’s growth

Major calls from economists on Canada’s growth

Bay Street economists are placing their bets on whether or not the Canadian economy is headed for a recession. (Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

Higher borrowing rates, a relentless surge in the cost of living, a downturn in the housing market and a softening of the jobs market have Canada wondering whether the economy is headed for a recession.

Here’s where some Bay Street and other economists stand on the fate of Canada’s economy:

Calling for a recession

BMO Economics

BMO Capital Markets expects a “moderate and short-lived” recession in Canada through the first half of 2023 as a handful of factors weigh on the economy. A slowdown in US growth, higher interest rates, a downturn in financial markets and a further correction in home prices lay the groundwork for a contraction, BMO said in a client note.

The tight labor market is also likely in for an adjustment, with BMO expecting the unemployment rate to hit 6.5 per cent, from the current 5.4 per cent. Rate cuts are unlikely until early 2024, the bank said.

– As of Oct. 5, 2022

RBC Economics

RBC recently moved up its recession forecast and now expects a “moderate” contraction in the first half of 2023 as the high cost of living and rising borrowing rates take a toll on consumer spending and the housing market. Households could see their purchasing power reduced by $3,000 (or about 3% of annualized household disposable income over the first half of this year) in 2023 as sticky inflation offsets any meaningful gains in wages, the bank estimates.

“We expect the Bank of Canada to pause its rate-hiking cycle in late-2022 followed by the Fed in early 2023. But that’s contingent on inflation pressures easing. More stubborn inflation trends over the coming months could yet prompt additional hikes, and a potentially larger decline in household consumption and a deeper recession,” RBC said.

– As of Oct. 12, 2022

Citi

Canada is indeed headed for a recession, but it will come later than most people think, economist Veronica Clark said. “We expect a more widespread slowdown in activity in Canada into next year with a contraction in GDP in the second half of next year,” she said in a note to clients, with higher rates and a slowing US economy being the main drag on growth . Most other firms that are calling for a recession see it happening in the first half of 2023.

– As of Oct. 28, 2022

Desjardins

Canada is in for a recession in “early 2023,” Desjardins confirmed in an email to Yahoo Finance Canada. Separately, the firm says in a client note that the Bank of Canada is aware of the clear trade-offs in rapidly hiking its key lending rate. “Policy makers are willing to risk a mild near-term recession rather than allow high inflation to become entrenched, as that would eventually necessitate a more severe downturn.”

– As of Sept. 23, 2022

Scotiabank Economics

Economists at Bank of Nova Scotia see the economy entering a technical recession, or two straight quarters of negative growth, in the first half of 2023. “Though we now expect what might be called a technical recession in Canada, we believe the economy will essentially stall in the first half of 2023. The decline in economic activity is likely to be minor and short-lived owing to the underlying resilience of the economy,” the bank said in a client note. GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.6 per cent for next year overall, from 3.2 per cent this year.

Lower commodity prices, more uncertainty, stock market declines, higher borrowing rates and a weak US economy will all weigh on Canada.

– As of Oct. 17, 2022

Capital Economics

Capital Economics is also on the list of firms calling for a recession in the first half of next year. The firm says sticky inflation is weighing on consumer spending and inflation expectations are becoming more embedded as prices remain resilient despite higher interest rates. The housing market downturn also won’t bode well for the economy. The firm hiked its forecast for the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate to now hit 4.75 per cent early next year.

– As of Oct. 21, 2022

Not using the “R” word

TD Economics

Despite the odds being stacked against the domestic economy, TD Economics still sees growth in GDP ahead, albeit at a slower pace. The bank is forecasting a 0.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent expansion for the first and second quarters next year, respectively. Higher rates and inflation will weigh on households, but TD says consumer spending has increased since COVID-related restrictions were lifted, and that elevated commodity prices will help boost the economy.

– as of Sept. 20, 2022

CIBC Capital Markets

The Canadian economy will kick off the new year with a slight contraction, according to a note from CIBC Capital Markets. The economy will shrink 0.2 per cent in the first quarter before rebounding to a tepid 0.6 per cent growth in the second quarter of next year, the bank predicts. The effects won’t be felt evenly across the country though. Ontario and British Columbia. will bear the brunt of the impact because of their reliance on the real estate sector and high levels of household debt.

Quebec will also struggle with growth because of its tight labor market, CIBC says. Meanwhile, Alberta is expected to benefit from higher commodity prices and Atlantic Canada will get a boost from an influx of international and interprovincial migration.

– as of Oct. 20, 2022

National Bank Financial Markets

National Bank Financial Markets forecasts a small 0.2 per cent GDP contraction in the first quarter, followed by 0.9 per cent growth in the following quarter. In a client note, the bank says Canada was doing “so far so good” in avoiding a hard landing for the economy and that key indicators like inflation were moving in the right direction. Overall for 2023 though, National lowered its GDP forecast to a megagre 0.7 per cent.

– as of Oct. 2022

Bank of Canada

The central bank lowered its growth forecasts amid a steep decline in housing activity, a weakening labor market and a pullback in consumer spending. The Bank did not commit to a recession outright, but says GDP growth through the end of this year and into 2023 will likely slow to between zero and 0.5 per cent, where “a couple of quarters with growth slightly below zero is just as likely as a couple of quarters with small positive growth.”

– as of Oct. 26, 2022

International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund expects Canadian economic growth to slow to 1.5 per cent next year, but warns the risks are skewed to the downside. Persistent inflation and a bigger-than-expected drag from the US economy could mean a “substantially worse” outlook for Canada. The IMF adds that it sees the unemployment rate rising to six per cent and home prices eroding their pandemic gains. “A mild recession could easily emerge, and the historical distribution of risks suggests a roughly 10 per cent chance that the economy would contract for 2023 as a whole,” the IMF said.

– as of Oct. 12, 2022

Michelle Zadikian is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @m_zadikian.

Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for apples and Androids.

Former Australian Medical Association President Says COVID Vaccines Are Much More Dangerous Than Thought

December 21, 2022 · 6:52 AM

Former Australian Medical Association President Says COVID Vaccines Are Much More Dangerous Than Thought
The various available vaccines, possibly even different batches from the same manufacturer, have different adverse effect profiles

From News.com.au:

Former federal MP [Member of Parliament?] Dr Kerryn Phelps has revealed he and his wife both suffered serious and ongoing injuries from Covid vaccines, while suggesting the true rate of adverse events is far higher than acknowledged due to underreporting and “threats” from medical regulators.

In an explosive submission to Parliament’s Long Covid inquiry, the former Australian Medical Association (AMA) president has broken her silence about the “devastating” experience — emerging as the most prominent public health figure in the country to speak up about the taboo subject.

“This is an issue that I have witnessed first-hand with my wife who suffered a severe neurological reaction to her first Pfizer vaccine within minutes, including burning face and gums, paraesthesiae, and numb hands and feet, while under observation by myself, another doctor and a registered nurse at the time of immunization,” the 65-year-old said.

Steve Parker, M.D

One More Cure for Hiccups

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