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Major calls from economists on Canada’s growth

Major calls from economists on Canada’s growth

Bay Street economists are placing their bets on whether or not the Canadian economy is headed for a recession. (Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

Higher borrowing rates, a relentless surge in the cost of living, a downturn in the housing market and a softening of the jobs market have Canada wondering whether the economy is headed for a recession.

Here’s where some Bay Street and other economists stand on the fate of Canada’s economy:

Calling for a recession

BMO Economics

BMO Capital Markets expects a “moderate and short-lived” recession in Canada through the first half of 2023 as a handful of factors weigh on the economy. A slowdown in US growth, higher interest rates, a downturn in financial markets and a further correction in home prices lay the groundwork for a contraction, BMO said in a client note.

The tight labor market is also likely in for an adjustment, with BMO expecting the unemployment rate to hit 6.5 per cent, from the current 5.4 per cent. Rate cuts are unlikely until early 2024, the bank said.

– As of Oct. 5, 2022

RBC Economics

RBC recently moved up its recession forecast and now expects a “moderate” contraction in the first half of 2023 as the high cost of living and rising borrowing rates take a toll on consumer spending and the housing market. Households could see their purchasing power reduced by $3,000 (or about 3% of annualized household disposable income over the first half of this year) in 2023 as sticky inflation offsets any meaningful gains in wages, the bank estimates.

“We expect the Bank of Canada to pause its rate-hiking cycle in late-2022 followed by the Fed in early 2023. But that’s contingent on inflation pressures easing. More stubborn inflation trends over the coming months could yet prompt additional hikes, and a potentially larger decline in household consumption and a deeper recession,” RBC said.

– As of Oct. 12, 2022

Citi

Canada is indeed headed for a recession, but it will come later than most people think, economist Veronica Clark said. “We expect a more widespread slowdown in activity in Canada into next year with a contraction in GDP in the second half of next year,” she said in a note to clients, with higher rates and a slowing US economy being the main drag on growth . Most other firms that are calling for a recession see it happening in the first half of 2023.

– As of Oct. 28, 2022

Desjardins

Canada is in for a recession in “early 2023,” Desjardins confirmed in an email to Yahoo Finance Canada. Separately, the firm says in a client note that the Bank of Canada is aware of the clear trade-offs in rapidly hiking its key lending rate. “Policy makers are willing to risk a mild near-term recession rather than allow high inflation to become entrenched, as that would eventually necessitate a more severe downturn.”

– As of Sept. 23, 2022

Scotiabank Economics

Economists at Bank of Nova Scotia see the economy entering a technical recession, or two straight quarters of negative growth, in the first half of 2023. “Though we now expect what might be called a technical recession in Canada, we believe the economy will essentially stall in the first half of 2023. The decline in economic activity is likely to be minor and short-lived owing to the underlying resilience of the economy,” the bank said in a client note. GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.6 per cent for next year overall, from 3.2 per cent this year.

Lower commodity prices, more uncertainty, stock market declines, higher borrowing rates and a weak US economy will all weigh on Canada.

– As of Oct. 17, 2022

Capital Economics

Capital Economics is also on the list of firms calling for a recession in the first half of next year. The firm says sticky inflation is weighing on consumer spending and inflation expectations are becoming more embedded as prices remain resilient despite higher interest rates. The housing market downturn also won’t bode well for the economy. The firm hiked its forecast for the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate to now hit 4.75 per cent early next year.

– As of Oct. 21, 2022

Not using the “R” word

TD Economics

Despite the odds being stacked against the domestic economy, TD Economics still sees growth in GDP ahead, albeit at a slower pace. The bank is forecasting a 0.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent expansion for the first and second quarters next year, respectively. Higher rates and inflation will weigh on households, but TD says consumer spending has increased since COVID-related restrictions were lifted, and that elevated commodity prices will help boost the economy.

– as of Sept. 20, 2022

CIBC Capital Markets

The Canadian economy will kick off the new year with a slight contraction, according to a note from CIBC Capital Markets. The economy will shrink 0.2 per cent in the first quarter before rebounding to a tepid 0.6 per cent growth in the second quarter of next year, the bank predicts. The effects won’t be felt evenly across the country though. Ontario and British Columbia. will bear the brunt of the impact because of their reliance on the real estate sector and high levels of household debt.

Quebec will also struggle with growth because of its tight labor market, CIBC says. Meanwhile, Alberta is expected to benefit from higher commodity prices and Atlantic Canada will get a boost from an influx of international and interprovincial migration.

– as of Oct. 20, 2022

National Bank Financial Markets

National Bank Financial Markets forecasts a small 0.2 per cent GDP contraction in the first quarter, followed by 0.9 per cent growth in the following quarter. In a client note, the bank says Canada was doing “so far so good” in avoiding a hard landing for the economy and that key indicators like inflation were moving in the right direction. Overall for 2023 though, National lowered its GDP forecast to a megagre 0.7 per cent.

– as of Oct. 2022

Bank of Canada

The central bank lowered its growth forecasts amid a steep decline in housing activity, a weakening labor market and a pullback in consumer spending. The Bank did not commit to a recession outright, but says GDP growth through the end of this year and into 2023 will likely slow to between zero and 0.5 per cent, where “a couple of quarters with growth slightly below zero is just as likely as a couple of quarters with small positive growth.”

– as of Oct. 26, 2022

International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund expects Canadian economic growth to slow to 1.5 per cent next year, but warns the risks are skewed to the downside. Persistent inflation and a bigger-than-expected drag from the US economy could mean a “substantially worse” outlook for Canada. The IMF adds that it sees the unemployment rate rising to six per cent and home prices eroding their pandemic gains. “A mild recession could easily emerge, and the historical distribution of risks suggests a roughly 10 per cent chance that the economy would contract for 2023 as a whole,” the IMF said.

– as of Oct. 12, 2022

Michelle Zadikian is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @m_zadikian.

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Former Australian Medical Association President Says COVID Vaccines Are Much More Dangerous Than Thought

December 21, 2022 · 6:52 AM

Former Australian Medical Association President Says COVID Vaccines Are Much More Dangerous Than Thought
The various available vaccines, possibly even different batches from the same manufacturer, have different adverse effect profiles

From News.com.au:

Former federal MP [Member of Parliament?] Dr Kerryn Phelps has revealed he and his wife both suffered serious and ongoing injuries from Covid vaccines, while suggesting the true rate of adverse events is far higher than acknowledged due to underreporting and “threats” from medical regulators.

In an explosive submission to Parliament’s Long Covid inquiry, the former Australian Medical Association (AMA) president has broken her silence about the “devastating” experience — emerging as the most prominent public health figure in the country to speak up about the taboo subject.

“This is an issue that I have witnessed first-hand with my wife who suffered a severe neurological reaction to her first Pfizer vaccine within minutes, including burning face and gums, paraesthesiae, and numb hands and feet, while under observation by myself, another doctor and a registered nurse at the time of immunization,” the 65-year-old said.


Steve Parker, M.D

front cover of Conquer Diabetes and Prediabetes

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WSIB freezing premiums to give break to small businesses: President

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WSIB freezing premiums to give break to small businesses: President

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Workplace insurance costs will not rise for businesses in 2023 because the Ontario government agency that runs the program is freezing its premiums, president Jeffery Lang said.

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The Workplace Safety and Insurance Board will announce Thursday its average rates will remain the same. The rates were reduced in 2021.

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Businesses emerging from the pandemic have been hit with inflation, labor shortages, slowing growth and a demand to pay higher wages as well as supply chain issues, and it’s about time they got a break, Lang said.

“We are very happy and proud to announce that we will hold the average premium rate steady for 2023. There are some real challenges out there for small businesses,” he said.

“There is talk of a downturn and we don’t want to put any more pressure on businesses.”

Ontario now has the lowest WSIB rates in 20 years, Lang said

Businesses pay $1.30 for every $100 of insurable earnings. So, a business with $500,000 in payroll will pay about $6,500 annually.

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“We think that every little bit helps,” Lang said.

WSIB reduced premiums by seven per cent in 2021 to the $1.30 level.

Of the 330,000 businesses in Ontario, about 80 per cent are small businesses employing about 5.6 million insured workers, Lang said.

News of the average rate freeze will be welcomed in the face of rising costs and worries over slowing economic growth, said Krista Duever, vice-president of public affairs at the London Chamber of Commerce.

“It is good news for small businesses, it gives them certainty going into the next year,” he said.

“A lot of small businesses are still in survival mode, facing inflationary pressure and supply chain issues and labor shortages, but there is optimism too. We seem to be coming out of the pandemic. Business owners are starting to feel like they can plan for the future and that was difficult for the last few years.”

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WSIB in April announced it was giving $1.2 billion in what was surplus cash back to businesses. Legislation had restricted the agency from refunding the money, but that legislation had been changed, Lang said.

”The money is from employers, it is their money. We did not have the ability to give it back to them,” he said. “They are our customers; it is their money. It is better off in their hands.”

It is the first rebate offered in WSIB history.

In addition, WSIB is increasing an incentive for employers to train workers in workplace safety in a move to try to reduce workplace accidents and injuries, Lang said. Businesses will get the chance to receive premium rebates of up to 100 per cent, meaning they can pay nothing for WSIB coverage.

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Unicorn AI Startup Cresta Adds Marketing and Business Development Veterans to Leadership Team

PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Crestathe leader in real-time intelligence for the contact center, today announced that it has bolstered its executive team with the additions of Scott Kolman as Head of Marketing and Adam Walton as VP of Business Development. Kolman will drive global marketing strategy and execution as Cresta continues to expand internationally, and Walton will expand Cresta’s partner program and spearhead new business and customer success initiatives.

“Scott and Adam brought decades of customer engagement experience to Cresta at an important time for our company,” said Zayd Six, CEO of Cresta. “Both leaders have an extensive background in the contact center industry and a proven track record of scaling high-growth organizations. They will play crucial roles as we continue to build the best contact center AI solution on the market that enables agents and managers alike to be superhuman.”

The contact center software industry is expected to reach $165 billion in market size by 2030 as businesses increasingly infuse their contact centers with technology to make their agents significantly more effective. As a leader in conversational intelligence, Cresta is continuing to expand its executive team as it continues to expand globally.

“Cresta and its innovative AI solutions are transforming the way contact center agents and managers operate,” said Scott Kolman, Head of Marketing at Cresta. “Effective, high-performing contact centers are essential to the success and reputation of modern businesses and have a tremendous effect on the productivity of both agents and managers. Working with the leadership team, my goal is to introduce our contact center AI platform to more brands across the globe and help companies to significantly improve revenue growth, operational efficiency and effectiveness, and customer satisfaction.”

“The contact center industry has never been more important and impactful as businesses are catching on to the transformative effect that technology such as AI can have on their bottom lines,” said Adam Walton, VP of Business Development. “Modern contact centers are evolving at lightning speed, and Cresta has tremendous momentum in this space. I’m looking forward to propelling the company’s growth by helping more businesses and partners use Cresta’s groundbreaking solutions.”

Both hirings build on what has been a year of accomplishments for Cresta. In March, the company announced an $80 million Series C funding, at a $1.6 billion post-money valuations. And in August, Cresta was unveiled several groundbreaking new products like Cresta Insights, Agent Assist, Opera, Chatbot, and Director that would reshape the way contact centers operate. Additionally, Cresta was recently recognized as a “Hot AI Vendors” by Aragon Research and earned inclusion on the CB Insights AI 100 list.

“We’ve been bullish on Cresta from the beginning, and solidifying the bench with strategic minds who have expertise in the industry and a broad market view will only help propel Cresta’s mission,” said Saam Motamadi, Partners, Greylock Partners. “Cresta is on the precipice of what I believe will be the true turning point for AI technology in the contact center, reimagining the way this industry operates and how its personnel engage with and best serve ongoing clients.”

To learn more about Cresta, visit www.cresta.com.

About Cresta

Cresta makes every customer interaction excellent. Cresta turns real-time intelligence into real-time action to make the contact center smarter – and every agent and manager more productive. Powering customer experiences for companies like CarMax, Blue Nile, Earthlink, Intuit, and Porsche, Cresta is real-time AI for the real world.

Follow us blogs and connect with us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

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Unicorn AI Startup Cresta Adds Marketing and Business Development Veterans to Leadership Team

Dosa Kitchen wins BDCC business plan contest | Local News

BRATTLEBORO — A husband and wife team that got its start making dosas (thin crepes) behind the Hooker-Dunham Building on Main Street was the grand prize winner of the 2022 business plan competition hosted by the Brattleboro Development Credit Corporation.

“The finalists were all incredibly strong entrepreneurs with great passion for their businesses, and I am looking forward to seeing all of them grow and develop,” said Ed Sheldon, Key Bank’s business banking relationship manager for the Vermont market. “Dosa Kitchen in particular did a great job of articulating their growth strategy and how that plan would create new jobs and bring outside dollars into Windham County.”

Sheldon was one of six judges of this year’s competition, along with Bronna Zlochiver of the WCEDP Council, Sara Powell of the Hannah Grimes Center for Entrepreneurship, Meg Streeter of Southeastern Vermont Economic Development, Jeffrey Thomas of Lever, Inc., and Dena Moses of Vermont Weaving, last year’s winner.

“We learned a lot just doing the business plan,” said Leda Scheintaub, who started Dosa Kitchen in 2014 with Nash Patel.

Scheintaub said that in their eight years of running their food truck, they’ve never written a business plan.

“Somehow we managed to miss that. We bought the food truck and just started running it. I still had another job, so it wasn’t like a huge risk to start that. So we just went and did it.”

But now, hoping to get their dosa batter in even more stores, they’re measuring space in the Winston Prouty kitchen for all the equipment they need.

“We’re really good at doing the food truck, we know how to do that really well,” said Scheintaub. “But with the production, there’s a whole lot to learn about how to do the pricing and doing [profit and loss] projections for the year going forward.”

Lisa Whitney, director of campus operations at Winston Prouty, said they are delighted to have Dosa Kitchen on the campus.

“Sometimes the right people just come along at the right time,” she said. “We’ve got a great community here, and they’re just gonna fit right in.”

Whitney said she wasn’t surprised to learn Patel and Scheintaub won the competition.

“They’ve been so thoughtful about this process and making sure that they were dotting their i’s and crossing their t’s,” she said.

Another person who wasn’t surprised was Nancy Cain, co-founder of Against the Grain, who helped Scheintaub and Patel with their business plan.

“They’ve done this very deliberately,” she said, spending the past eight years “truck testing” their product. “The two things that make these things work are one, you have to have a good product, and second, you have to have a sustainable business. They have both of those.”

Cain has known the couple for a while, as Patel worked on the production line at Against the Grain in the Brattleboro Business Park, formerly the Book Press, on Putney Road.

Patel and Scheintaub also gave thanks to Debra Boudrieau, business advisor at the Vermont Small Business Development Center located within the BDCC.

The kitchen at Winston Prouty not only gives them space to increase production, but also hosts pop-up events or even offers take-out food during the winter, when the food truck is shuttered for the season.

“You cannot operate out of your home,” said Cain, about having a commercial kitchen. “You have to have the freezer, the refrigerated storage. You just can’t do it out of your house. If you can’t buy in bulk, you’re paying the retail rate.”

Twenty-six entrepreneurs submitted applications for the competition in June. Applicants consist of both startups and expansions for existing businesses in a wide range of business sectors.

To be eligible to participate, applicants had to be based in Windham County, they had to have a clearly identified target market, and they had to have plans to hire at least two full-time employees in fiscal year 2024.

Eight businesses met all three criteria and moved forward to the final round of the competition. Those finalists included West River Coffee Bar in Londonderry, Hayden Rowe Candle Co. in South Londonderry, Earthen Co. in Putney, Home Grown Edible Landscaping & Nursery and Wicked Clean Grooming, both in Guilford, and The Inventory, Forestopia L3C, and Dosa Kitchen, all of Brattleboro.

Finalists were asked to produce a full business plan utilizing online software provided through the Windham County Economic Development Program and on Oct. 14, they pitched their business plans for seven minutes and fielded questions from a panel of judges.

10 Minute Meditation For Instant Relaxation


Are you feeling stressed? Are you facing a difficult time at work or at home? Is your mind constantly thinking negative or multiple thoughts at once? Have you heard of meditation but haven’t tried it yet, or aren’t sure how to get started?

This 10 minute meditation can clear your mind, reduce stress and help you feel more in control – and you don’t have to be alone at home to try it!

You will really only need the ability to focus on the present moment, noticing when you are distracted by other thoughts.

Meditation using sound

One of the best ways to de-stress is to use sound as a focus. The sound is a great “anchor” because you can use it anywhere – on your morning walk, in the car, at work and anywhere else you can imagine. Another great advantage is that no one will know you’re doing it!

Focusing on external sounds takes our attention away from anxious or negative thoughts and refocuses us on the present moment. When we’re stressed, we’re usually not aware of the endless repetitive dialogue going on in our minds that intensifies the stress. Most of our thoughts either belong to situations from the past or concern the future. So, meditation brings us back to the present moment, giving our mind a break from all the thoughts that unnecessarily overwhelm it.

Sound meditation can easily be used at any time of the day, so you don’t need to find extra time. These moments of awareness of the present moment can make a huge difference in your day, changing your mood and offering peace and tranquility. After all, who doesn’t need it in their life?

10 minute meditation for stress

You can use it whenever you feel nervous or when you just want to take a break. With practice, meditation enables us to quiet the uncomfortable chatter (usually negative) that dominates our minds. This has a positive effect on our mental health!

Exercise

Set the timer on your phone to 10 minutes. Take a few breaths to calm down. Then, turn your attention to the sounds that may be heard. What can you hear? Traffic noise? Maybe birds? People chatting next to you? A clock? A colleague’s pencil or keyboard? All this and more can become a source of your focus! Of course, don’t try meditation if you are working with noisy tools, drills, chainsaws, etc. nearby, as it will only cause you to overexert yourself.

So, notice the sounds in your immediate environment and keep your attention there. Notice how the sounds appear, which ones your attention stays the most. Notice how you cannot hold sounds in your mind for a second longer than they last.

When you are distracted by a thought (which is likely to happen immediately) you will simply return slowly to hear the sound again. Try not to analyze the sounds or judge them, just listen to them.

Enjoy the fact that you don’t have to control the sounds, they just come and go. You can notice the quality of the sound, but try not to think about it or tell yourself a story about them. If this happens, just pause the story and go back to listening to the sounds. If you notice that you have an answer for everything, with practice this will improve, the thoughts will begin to shrink and calmness will come faster.

Don’t worry about being perfect, meditation is about being present with clarity and kindness to yourself first, and then to those around you.

Keep meditating

Are the sounds constantly changing? Maybe you can hear the wind now? A police siren? A ringing phone? Don’t fall into the trap of labeling sounds again, just recognize what’s around you. Remember, kindness is key, if you get distracted, don’t get angry or judge yourself. Just observe, put aside thoughts and go back to listening to the sounds.

When the timer alerts you, you’re done! Give yourself a few minutes to reorient yourself to the entire environment around you, and feel good, positively rewarding yourself for the effort.

Don’t worry about distractions

If you’re distracted, that’s exactly what your mind has been trained to do. Our minds are chatting all the time. Quiet is a difficult but not impossible part. Noticing the distractions is the main point of meditation. If, for example, instead of focusing on the present moment, you’re thinking about what you’re going to eat for dinner, or a conversation you had earlier, or something that upsets you and keeps replaying it in your head, then just come back to the present moment and feel calm.

Instead of getting mad at yourself, congratulate yourself on every achievement! This 10 minute meditation also shows us how many pointless, stupidly stressful thoughts our minds have, and how not every thought is so worthy of our attention. Let yourself be in the moment and simply enjoy the daily mental benefits it can offer you!

Musk posts video of himself strolling into Twitter HQ – Business News

Tom Krisher And Matt O’brien, The Associated Press – Oct 26, 2022 / 1:24 pm | Stories: 392791

Musk posts video of himself strolling into Twitter HQ – Business News

Photo: The Canadian Press

FILE – Elon Musk speaks at the SATELLITE Conference and Exhibition on March 9, 2020, in Washington. Musk posted videos Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022, showing him strolling into Twitter headquarters ahead of a Friday, Oct. 28, deadline to close his $44 billion deal to buy the company. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, Files)

Elon Musk posted video Wednesday showing him strolling into Twitter headquarters ahead of a Friday deadline to close his $44 billion deal to buy the company.

Musk also changed his Twitter profile to refer to himself as “Chief Twit” and his location as Twitter headquarters, which is based in San Francisco. The video showed him carrying a sink through a lobby area.

“Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!” he tweeted.

Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in! pic.twitter.com/D68z4K2wq7

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 26, 2022

A court has given Musk until Friday to close his April agreement to acquire the company after he earlier tried to back out of the deal. Neither Musk nor Twitter has said if the deal is closed yet.

Despite Musk’s splashy entry to headquarters, it wasn’t clear yet whether his purchase of Twitter had been finalized. Twitter confirmed that Musk’s video tweet was real but wouldn’t comment further. Alex Spiro, Musk’s lead lawyer, didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

The Washington Post reported last week that Musk told prospective investors that he plans to cut three quarters of Twitter’s 7,500 workers when he becomes owner of the company. The newspapers cited documents and unnamed sources familiar with the deliberation.

One of Musk’s biggest obstacles to closing the deal was keeping in place the financing pledged roughly six months ago.

A group of banks, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, signed earlier this year to loan $12.5 billion of the money Musk needed to buy Twitter and take it private. Solid contracts with Musk bound the banks to the financing, although changes in the economy and debt markets since April have likely made the terms less attractive. Musk even said his investment group would be buying Twitter for more than it’s worth.

Less clear is what’s happening with the billions of dollars pledged to Musk by investors who would get ownership stakes in Twitter. Musk’s original slate of equity partners included an array of partners ranging from the billionaire’s tech world friends with like-minded ideas about Twitter’s future, such as Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, to funds controlled by Middle Eastern royalty.

The more equity investors kick in for the deal, the less Musk has to pay on his own. Most of his wealth is tied up in shares of Tesla, the electric car company that he runs. Since April, he has sold more than $15 billion worth of Tesla stock, presumably to pay his share. More sales could be coming.

Musk’s flirtation with buying Twitter appeared to begin in late March. That’s when Twitter said he contacted members of its board — including co-founder Jack Dorsey — and told them he was buying up shares and was interested in either joining the board, taking Twitter private or starting a competitor.

Then, on April 4, he revealed in a regulatory filing that he had become the company’s largest shareholder after acquiring a 9% stake worth about $3 billion.

At first, Twitter offered Musk a seat on its board. But six days later, CEO Parag Agrawal tweeted that Musk would not be joining the board after all. His bid to buy the company quickly followed.

When Musk agreed to buy Twitter, he inserted a “420” marijuana reference into his price of $54.20 per share. He sold roughly $15 billion worth of shares in Tesla to help fund the purchase, then pulled together commitments for billions more from a diverse group of investors including Silicon Valley heavy hitters like Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.

Inside Twitter, Musk’s offer was met with confusion and falling morale, especially after Musk publicly criticized one of Twitter’s top lawyers involved in content-moderation decisions.

In July, Musk abruptly reversed course, announcing that he was abandoning his bid to buy Twitter. His stated reason: Twitter had not been straightforward about its problem with fake accounts he dubbed “spam bots.” Twitter sued Musk in the Delaware Chancery Court to force the deal through. Two weeks before a 5-day trial was scheduled to begin, Musk changed his mind again, saying that he wanted to complete the deal after all.

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